Analytical Bulletin, Issue 10 (29), October 2014

November 13, 2014

The Institute of Contemporary Development has published its most recent analytical bulletin. The main topics of this issue are: the Trilateral Commission on the Ukrainian Crisis and future of the EU; the formation of the Transatlantic and Transpacific Partnerships; European security yesterday and today; the current state of the global economy; trends and forecasts for oil prices.

The annotation of Analytical Bulletin No. 10 (29), can be found below. The full text of the bulletin in Russian can be found here.

Issue 10 (29)

In this issue:

Igor Yurgens. Belgrade Meeting of the Trilateral Commission

About the latest session of the Trilateral Commission, where the discussion focused on the current state of affairs in the European Union, the Ukrainian Crisis, expansion of European integration in the Southwest Balkans, energy policy of the European Union, role of new technologies in economic progress on the whole and in infrastructure construction in particular.

Sergey Kulik. On Interregional Integration Associations

About the discussions between the EU and US on the creations of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership in light of the latest step of Brussels, which has declassified the mandate of its trade negotiation delegation in September 2013. Having become publically accessible, the mandate provides food for thought on the Brussels’ stance. It also somewhat narrows the opportunity for free interpretation of the intentions of the executive branch of the European Union. The process of the formation of the Transpacific Partnership is also analyzed in light of the “China factor”.

Sergey Kulik. On the 5-Year Anniversary of the European Security Agreement Proposal

Notes on the five-year anniversary of Russia’s bold foreign policy initiative. This proposal did much to enliven expert communities to search for mutually acceptable formats and instruments to satisfy common security needs. That was also accompanied by an energetic dialogue to improve relations between Russia and NATO. This work covered a diverse array of different scenarios, combinations of interests and objectives, a wide palette of possible solutions. Many of them are already unfeasible, but it would be useful to return to some of them for analysis.

Nikita Maslennikov. The World Economy in Slowing Rut

An overview of the current assessments of the condition of the world economy at the global and regional level. The economy is chock full of risks. Nonetheless, a multi-tiered system is gradually being developed to keep these risks within relatively acceptable bounds. In formats of the international cooperation this includes: collective adaptation to the end of the easy money cycle; continuation of financial sector reforms; coordination of tax and budget policy to avoid an increase in sovereign debt; implementation of the OECD/G20 plan to prevent tax base erosion from profit shifting; and joint effort to lower the trade imbalance between developed and developing countries. At the national level this includes: synergies from optimal use of monetary policy; more effective government spending; targeted tax relief for business and individuals; structural reforms aimed at improving business climate; and state investment in infrastructure.

Marina Voitenko. Oil Prices – the Beginning of a New Trend?

On world oil prices – trends and forecasts. A reset of the core value parameters of the world oil market is in full swing and the Russian economy is very sensitive to this process. An accelerated transition (through structural reforms) to a new economic model is becoming a key political and strategic priority. It would be a serious mistake to harbor illusions that the low prices on liquid hydrocarbons will eventually stimulate world economic growth and thus return everything to its previous state.