Analytical Bulletin, Issue 5/6 (24/25), May/June 2014

June 23, 2014

The Institute of Contemporary Development has published its most recent analytical bulletin. The main topics of this issue are: the dead end in the integration struggle in Europe; the Russian economy’s turn to the east; the current and future prospects of NATO; global health security; foreign policy and public opinion in Germany.

The annotation of Analytical Bulletin No. 5/6 (24/25) can be found below. The full text of the bulletin in Russian can be found here.

Issue 5/6 (24/25), May/June 2014

Janis Urbanovics. Baltic Forum: from an Integration Bridge to Aide for Ukraine

On the latest meeting of the Baltic Forum held in Jurmala (Latvia) in late May. “Authoritative politicians and economists from 15 countries around the world strived to jointly consider the acute crisis in relations between Russia and the West and find at least a partial consensus on this issue. The main part of this brainstorm was an analysis of the policy approach of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership. Its implementation was hampered by mistakes and challenges recognized both in the East and in the West. And this program to a certain degree became one of the reasons for the Ukrainian drama…”

Nikita Maslennikov, Marina Voitenko. The Turn Eastward – Challenges, Opportunities

The level of integration of the Russian economy in the global economy: the current state and unrealized opportunities. “Russia belongs to the group of countries with a balanced engagement in global economic flows. However their intensity and benefits in terms of driving national social-economic development are much lower than for the leaders of this group (for example, Germany and the United States). The opportunities which are available even at this level of engagement in the world economy are not being used satisfactorily.”  Overview of prospects for progress on Asian markets. “The Chinese market and the markets of many other Asian economies stand on the threshold of major structural transformations which must be accompanied by a change in the models for economic growth…” The realization of any large-scale contract must be constantly monitored for how it will perform throughout the course of these transformations.

Sergey Kulik. Global Health Security

The issues of global health security on the G8 agenda. The role of the Russian presidency in 2006 and the unrealized potential of the 2014 presidency. “The reformatting of the club inevitably is accompanied by some drawbacks in addressing global health security issues as well as other pressing issues concerning the reform of approaches to multilateral cooperation. Nonetheless, Russia should not reduce its role and efforts in addressing these common problems, including through other authoritative formats. The objective of health security are increasingly intertwined with economic, social and other challenges of development not just concerning certain countries and regions but to relevant to the entire world. And these challenges are with increasing fervor knocking on the doors of international institutions, which are not yet seriously addressing them. It is no coincidence that the agenda for the Russian G8 presidency underscored the clear link between health security risks and risks to sustainable development.”

Jonathan Masters, NATO Backgrounder

The present and future state of affairs of NATO in light of the events in Ukraine as portrayed in a background report prepared by the Council of Foreign Relations. “Fears of further Russian incursions have prompted alliance leaders to reassess NATO's defenses in Europe, particularly in the East… Gen. Breedlove, NATO's top military commander, said in May that the alliance needs to prepare for a future in which Moscow can no longer be viewed as a partner… The United States has shored up NATO's air presence over Poland and the Baltic states, and other allies, including Britain, Germany, and Denmark, are looking to provide reinforcements as well. NATO will also increase outreach to Ukraine—an alliance partner since 1994—including promotion of defense reforms and capacity building. But as a non-member, Ukraine remains outside of NATO's defense perimeter, and there are clear limits on how far it can be brought into institutional structures… The Ukraine crisis will dominate discussion at the NATO summit in Wales in September, where military planners are expected to announce additional measures to strengthen the alliance's collective defenses.”

Sergey Kulik. German: Working with Public Opinion in the Formation of Foreign Policy

Public opinion as one of the factors playing a role in determining Germany’s foreign policy. “In recent times the German elite has supported a line of thinking in favor of more proactive engagement in foreign affairs – in contrast to the majority of the population, which meanwhile remains in favor of retaining the status quo. Ordinary citizens have yet to be convinced of the need for changes in this area, particular with regard to issues concerning the military component of foreign policy.” Germans on foreign policy priorities and Germany’s engagement on the international level as seen in the results of a survey carried out by the Körber Foundation in April and May of 2014: the numbers and recommendations.