Analytical Bulletin, Issue 3 (22), March 2014

April 4, 2014

The Institute of Contemporary Development has published its monthly analytical bulletin for March. The main topics of this issue are: Ukrainian events and the future of Russia; the EU’s foreign policy; the expert communities on Russia in the US and EU; and, risks facing the Chinese economy.

The annotation of Analytical Bulletin No. 3 (22) can be found below. The full text of the bulletin in Russian can be found here.

Issue 3 (22), March 2014

Igor Yurgens. Russian Foreign Policy and the Crisis in Ukraine:  Consequences and Outlook

“It remains early to project how the current Ukrainian plot will unfold in international relations. However, the consequences for Russia of the struggle in Ukraine already began to manifest themselves in March. It remains to be seen how profound these consequences will be and what effort will be needed to overcome them.” On the nature of the conflict in Ukraine and exit strategies as well as on how the events in Crimea will affect the future of Russia in the system of global governance.

Sergey Kulik. The EU Seeks Foreign Policy Benchmarks

The situation around Ukraine has stimulated the activation of the European Union on the international stage. “In the current situation it is even more difficult for the EU to determine its foreign policy course. The balance of powers among those in favor and against further development of relations with Russia. But Brussels is being forced to find solutions in a rather rapid manner” and the focus has been not only on foreign policy but also on security policy.

Sergey Kulik. On the Expert Communities on Russia

The discussion surrounding the unification of Crimea with Russia has been accompanied by public discussions of the state of the expert Western community on Russia. In recent years in the US and EU the size of this community has contracted and its representation in government and academic circles has also diminished. Now it seems that forecasting efforts of the expert community of the European Union will have to pay more attention to Russia, including when determining preferences and direction in foreign policy and foreign economic policy for Brussels in the foreseeable future. If the number of Russia experts in government structures is not expanded, then it may be prudent to at least carry out some sort of audit of research work and identify new topics and priorities on the Russian track.

Nikita Maslennikov. The Chinese Economy – Forecasting Risks

On the state of affairs in the Chinese economy, on the major risk zones and obstacles to economic growth. The first thing is the outlook for the modernization of the still fragile Chinese financial system. Can this task and others be successfully accomplished? There are more question than answers. At the same time it is become clearer that the observed systemic risks are of a medium term nature, making them the most important factor for the development of new markets (primarily Asian), where Russia intends to radically strengthen its presence by the end of this decade.