The Institute of Contemporary Development held a roundtable discussion “Global Energy Market: Lessons of the Crisis and Development Prospects”. The Committee on Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) was a co-organizer of the event.

The roundtable discussion was attended by representatives of the business community, the executive power, and the leading research institutes specializing in the energy sector.

In his opening speech adviser of the Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov, pointed out importance of forecasting and providing extra insights into the energy market dynamics. Secretary of the Committee on Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency Andrey Scherbina briefed the audience on the RSPP Platform "Russia's Prospects at International Energy Markets", which was approved June 16, 2010. He encouraged the state, the business and the scientific community to unite efforts in order to develop forecasts on the global economy dynamics.

President of the Energy and Finance Institute Leonid Grigoriev noted that financial speculations had not affected the price formation pattern of the market of energy sources. However, at this stage the policy of restrictions pursued by OPEK plays the key role. The economy will take longer than originally expected to revive, and the USA will be among the first to see this revival in early 2011.

General Director of the Institute of Energy Strategy Vitaly Bushuev did agree with the statement about the decisive role of OPEK. In his view the global market is influenced by geopolitical issues. As for the energy market, the regionalization trend is more apparent, compared to globalization.

The oil and gas sector will maintain its strong positions in the domestic economy. According to the Institute of Energy Strategy, oil prices will lack stability. Till 2016 the price will remain at $70-$80 with high volatility, whilst after 2017 the price may drop to $30.

Chairman of the Inter-industry Group of Experts Valentin Pominov said that Russia must develop a system for forecasting and analysis. However, prior to it the local experts are to survey and generalize the existing data.

Anatoly Dmitrievsky, Director of the Oil & Gas Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, briefed the audience on the patterns used in various countries to combat the crisis and its consequences. For example, the USA focused on assistance to banks, since powerful financial sources play a vital role in the crisis conditions. Europe chose to impose limitations on the public sector. As a result, the population had to bear the brunt of the crisis. As for China, in view of Anatoly Dmitrievsky, it will develop into the price leader, since has not been affected by the crisis. Speaking about Russia, Mr. Dmitrievsky stressed the need to reduce dependence of the Russian economy on primary products, and the need for the oil&gas industry to develop simultaneously with other elements of the energy sector.

Vladimir Drebentsov, Chief Economist for the CIS from BP Russia talked about the changes in the patterns of consumption of natural gas in the U.S. based on the latest statistical data.

Another viewpoint was presented by Exxon Mobil officials. According to the company’s forecast on the development of the energy sector (up to the year 2030), natural gas, oil, and coal will manage to satisfy the majority of demands, because not a single alternative energy source can compete with them by affordability, economy and a scale of production. In the experts’ view, in 2030 the global demand for energy sources will be 35% higher, compared to that of 2005.

As a result of the discussion, its participants stressed the need to continue cooperation in order to develop patterns of formation of the national system of forecasts.

The Committee on Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs